23 Mar 2010
Market analyst InSight Media says that it has produced the best 3DTV forecast to date
If market analyst InSight Media is correct, the 3DTV market looks set to explode over the next five years. The company has just released a report entitled 2010 3DTV Forecast Report: A Comprehensive Worldwide Forecast of 3D Television Unit Sales by Region and Technology, which predicts that nearly 50 million 3DTVs will be sold in 2015 – a massive rise from the 3.3 million 3DTVs it expects to be sold in 2010.
"We wanted to produce the best 3DTV forecast to date," said Insight Media President, Chris Chinnock. "Our methodology is comprehensive and transparent, so readers can judge if this is indeed a quality piece of work."
Major content creators such as Discovery, DirecTV and ESPN have all announced plans to roll out 3D channels and services in 2010 and 2011. Cable operators are aggressively evaluating the roll out of services in 2010 too, while 3D films such as Avatar have proved to be a massive hit.
According to InSight, all of the key ingredients for a 3DTV infrastructure and consumer service are in place, or about to be in place. 2010 will see significant excitement around 3D and the use of this content on TVs in the home. "A report that fully evaluates this space to provide a comprehensive and authoritative 3DTV forecast is needed by many players in the full 3DTV ecosystem," says the company.
The forecast features Insight Media's unique and proprietary convergence method that includes tops-down and bottoms-up approaches that are converged, reconciled, adjusted and validated to produce the final forecasts. Expected, optimistic and conservative forecasts are offered in the report.
The report provides 3DTV forecasts by region, with a technology breakdown for each region. The regions and technologies forecasted are shown below.
The tops-down analysis includes a determination of the total available market (TAM), adjustment for TVs over 30 inches, evaluation and selection of penetration rates to model 3DTV acceptance, and the development of intermediate, optimistic, and conservative forecasts.
The bottoms-up approach includes a consumer expectations analysis (technology dependent and technology independent), a price–performance–competitiveness analysis and a market development analysis.
"The intermediate forecasts produced with these approaches are compared and adjustments made for different rates of adoption by region, distribution or model availability, and other factors," explained co-lead analyst Norbert Hildebrand. "An interactive validation loop helps ensure that all results make sense and can be explained though reasonable arguments."
"The ultimate objective of this forecast is to provide decision makers with a trustworthy forecast that can help them make business, investment and product planning decisions," noted co-lead analyst Dale Maunu, "and I think we have achieved our goal."
The report is available in PDF format as a company site license for $2000.