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15 Sep 2006
Not only has the market for laser materials processing systems returned to the levels of 2000, double-digit growth is now expected through to 2010. Jacqueline Hewett asks Arnold Mayer about his forecast, how he sees various market sectors evolving and the changes that are on the cards as more manufacturing shifts to Asia.
The global market for laser materials processing systems reached an all-time high in 2005 when sales amounted to €4.8 bn. That is according to the latest figures from market analyst Arnold Mayer of Optech Consulting in Switzerland. The 2005 figure is a 3% increase on the 2004 mark of €4.65 bn (see figure 1).
The market for laser materials processing systems can essentially be divided in two: macro and micro. Macro encompasses laser systems used in applications such as cutting, welding and marking. Micro includes laser systems for the processing of semiconductors, printed circuit boards and other electronic components.
2005 uncovered
Breaking down the 2005 figure, laser systems for micro processing came in at €1.1 bn, an 11% decline on 2004. On the other hand, macro processing accounted for €3.7 bn, up by 7% on 2004.
Looking in finer detail, the laser macro processing segment for 2005 included systems for cutting and welding (€2.6 bn), marking (€0.7 bn) and an "other" category (€0.4 bn) comprising systems for rapid manufacturing and prototyping, ablation and engraving.
As well as semiconductors, the micro processing segment takes into account systems used for producing flat-panel displays. Microlithography is also included, but as Mayer stresses, in this instance it is only the value of the lasers that is accounted for while all other applications count the value of the complete laser machining system.
Of the €4.8 bn total for laser materials processing systems in 2005, €1.7 bn was accounted for by the laser sources integrated into the systems. Carbon dioxide and solid-state lasers (including fibre and disc lasers) each accounted for 40% of the total, while excimers and, to a smaller extent, diode lasers (not including pump modules) made up the balance.
The 2005 figure means that the market value has returned to the same heights seen in 2000. "In 2000, there was a bubble in the electronics market and there was a lot of semiconductor demand," explained Mayer. "What you see in 2005 is that the semiconductor portion is smaller than in 2000 and that sheet metal processing and welding have increased."
According to Mayer, declines in the micro processing area as well as currency fluctuations were primarily responsible for the dip in performance between 2000 and 2005. "The turnaround between 2003 and 2004 was mainly due to macro although there was positive development in micro. However, 2005 was not a good year for micro, you will see the same trend in the demand for semiconductor equipment."
Positive forecast
Looking to the future, Mayer is optimistic and expects to see double-digit growth rates for the second half of the decade with the total market reaching some €9 bn by 2010 (see figure 2). "My expectation for 2006 is an increasing world market," he said. "2006 started well in terms of revenue in the first quarters. I think that we will see an increase in both macro and micro in 2006."
In fact, it seems that micro processing could be the fastest growing area in the second half of the decade thanks to the expected transition to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. Mayer predicts growth of 20% between 2005 and 2010 for micro compared with growth of about 10% for the cutting, welding and marking area.
"This prediction [for micro] includes lithography as EUV is expected towards the end of the decade," he said. "There is potential in micro thanks to new applications and technologies. The potential growth rate is higher for micro than for macro. Macro is a more mature market. The availability of laser cutting has increased the use of flexibly cut sheet metal. It's a winning combination and it continues to contribute to the growth of the macro segment."
A question of geography
Europe is the largest market for laser materials processing systems, accounting for 34% of the 2005 total, followed by North America (24%) and Japan (20%). East Asia and the rest of the world account for the remaining 22%, with Korea, Taiwan and China being major players (see figure 3).
Focusing on Europe, Germany's share is about 35%. "If you look at machine tools in general, Germany is both a major consumer and a major producer," said Mayer. "Automated mechanical manufacturing is a major strength of German industry."
According to Mayer however, the Asian market is the one to watch. "Asia is the largest market and it is the fast-growing market," he said. "The market is shifting east and this is having a very strong impact. It becomes easier for manufacturers in Asia and harder for the ones in Europe or the US."
One of the strongest markets in Asia is flat-panel displays, which Mayer says is almost 100% an Asian industry. He adds that the semiconductor market and manufacturing are also increasingly taking place in Asia but that the US is still a strong player with Europe holding a 15% share.
Europe's strength, particularly in central Europe, is in macro processing. However, Mayer has a warning as demand is growing at higher rates in Asia and a shift is expected.
Boasting the second-largest economy in the world, Japan is in a good position, but is not immune to shifts in the market. "Japan has all the micro industries from displays to semiconductors," said Mayer. "It also has a lot of demand in macro. It has a similar strength to central Europe in mechanical manufacture. But a lot of manufacturing has already been shifted outside of Japan and the [Japanese] market has already been cut by this trend. It still remains an important market though."
• For more information on the laser materials processing systems market, Optech Consulting publishes an Industrial Laser Quarterly Report, see www.optech-consulting.com. |  |  |  |  |  |  |
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