The consumer market, currently at $2.0 billion, is expected to grow 32.0% annually to $8.3 billion, while the market for the commercial sector is expected to increase 60.0% annually, from $0.5 to $5.2 billion. "What you're dealing with in some ways are very traditional markets," said Lori Weisenbach, a contributing author to the report.
Weisenbach, the editor of Advanced Transportation Technology Review, explained that the goal of the trucking industry of moving products from one point to another hasn't changed, nor is the consumer transportation process much different than it was before high-technology systems supplemented mechanical and electrical components.
Weisenbach noted that the technology has been developed and then marketed rather than technology being developed to respond to a specific need. "Sometimes the companies feel that technology is being pushed for technology's sake."
At this point the largest markets for intelligent transportation systems are fleet management for trucking companies, electronic toll collection, and traffic monitoring. Collision avoidance presents opportunities but must overcome some obstacles.
Fleet management systems have been available since the late 1980s, but the system's cost did not make it feasible for small fleets. Newer systems allow companies with fewer than 50 trucks to implement fleet management technology.
The concept of electronic tolling was developed in Asia in the 1960s, Weisenbach believes, but refinements created the EZPass system in the early 1990s. Highway 407 in Toronto has been operational for about a year without collecting manual tolls, and MSS will be re-fitting some lanes of the New Jersey Turnpike for electronic collection.
While electronic tolling has increased the volume of traffic the toll roads can handle and it has been accepted on toll roads, Weisenbach feels that creation of additional toll roads will encounter public opposition, especially in the United States. She feels that much of the market will be outside the U.S. "Internationally there are a lot of opportunities. International tolls are much more accepted."
While users can buy a transponder and be billed for the use of Highway 407, the system can also record a license plate and send a bill to the car's owner (or to the rental car company, which will bill the person who rented the car during that period). The system has reported good verification of reading license plates and few problems with violators.
The New Jersey system also comes with a law preventing EZPass from being used for speed enforcement; some jurisdictions compare times between two toll points to determine if speed limits have been violated.
Traffic monitoring has also been a political issue; photo-radar has been prohibited in New Jersey and Wisconsin and overturned by referendum in at least one U.S. town. Video cameras have been used instead of photo-radar at many intersections to make up a large part of the current traffic monitoring market.
Weisenbach notes that the video systems can also control signals, keeping other lights red when a violator speeds up on a yellow light to decrease the chance of an accident. Video systems are currently being used in Scottsdale, Arizona, in several towns in New York, and soon in Vienna, Virginia. Another concern about the equipment is its ability to handle various weather conditions. "Like all technology you have to test them for extremes," noted Weisenbach. Vehicle navigation systems, adaptive cruise control, and collision avoidance will need some fine-tuning before going to market. "There are some real splits about what the future of technology is going to be," said Weisenbach, referring to the difference of opinion between proponents of the technology and automotive manufacturers who must convince the public to purchase vehicles with the features.
Navigational systems are expected to grow for fleet management, although Weisenbach warned that excessive government regulation could pose a threat. Weisenbach felt that transponder technology could be used to replace the current weigh stations for which trucks are currently required to stop.
Some high-end automakers currently offer in-vehicle navigation and collision avoidance systems as consumer options, but the the United States technology has not yet been filtered to more affordable cars. Weisenbach notes that Nissan has had a collision avoidance system on larger-market cars since 1989 but that the system is only available in Asia.
Collision avoidance has been tried on school buses, but bus companies found that drivers become too reliant on the system and safety has not improved as drivers have relaxed vigilance.
Weisenbach also feels that customers, who are more concerned with getting a job done than in using the latest technology, may be soured if actual improvement does not meet perceived performance.
"Overall I'm pretty positive on the industry, but I think there are issues that need to be addressed," said Weisenbach. "But I think that the markets are there and I think the revenues will be realized."
