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02 Jul 2025
Analysts at forecaster Yole now see market exceeding $1 BN this year, and topping $3.5 BN in 2030.
The global market for automotive lidar is on course to grow at a compound annual rate of 24 per cent through 2030, reaching a total size of $3.6 billion in the process.
That’s the latest prediction from French analyst firm Yole Group, whose update confirms the increased dominance of Chinese lidar companies in the sector.
While the anticipated rate of market growth remains rapid, it also represents an adjustment by Yole, which previously said that the market would reach $3.6 billion a year earlier, in 2029.
In their June 2024 analysis, the Yole team reported that the combined market for lidar technology used in robotaxi and passenger cars had reached $538 million in 2023.
The latest update estimates a figure of $859 million for 2024, equivalent to year-on-year growth of around 60 per cent.
Hesai in pole position
That rise has been led by Chinese lidar firms, with Hesai Technology - which shipped more than half a million lidar units last year - still leading the way.
Yole’s principal analyst Pierrick Boulay said: “China’s dominance in automotive lidar is not accidental. It’s the result of deliberate industrial policy, fast product cycles, and bold integration strategies.”
Boulay’s figures show Hesai with a market share of 33 per cent in 2024, down from 38 per cent in 2023. Its closest rival, Robosense, has moved up from 22 per cent to 24 per cent, with communications giant Huawei rising rapidly from 6 per cent in 2023 to 19 per cent last year.
“Hesai’s cutting-edge lidar solutions, including the ultra-compact ATX and high-performance AT1440, deliver high-resolution 3D perception critical for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving,” noted Yole.
“The company has secured over one hundred design wins across automotive OEMs, with notable partnerships with top Chinese automakers such as Li Auto, Great Wall Motor, Changan, Xiaomi, and BYD, among many others.”
Overall, Chinese lidar firms were found to have captured 93 per cent of the market in 2024, thanks to a combination of manufacturing scale, government support, and aggressive pricing, giving them a strategic edge over Western competitors such as Valeo, Luminar, and Innoviz.
Passenger cars drive 2025 uptick
For 2025 Boulay and colleagues suggest that the automotive lidar market will top $1 billion for the first time, rising by around 42 per cent on the 2024 figure to reach just over $1.2 billion.
The current boom is powered largely by rapid integration in passenger cars in China, with ongoing efforts to develop more advanced autonomous features elsewhere.
“In 2024 alone, over 1.6 million lidar units were shipped, more than doubling the previous year’s volume,” remarked Boulay. “The shift is unmistakable: passenger car lidar sales were over four times higher than those in the robotaxi sector.
The Yole team also points out that robotaxi development has stalled somewhat in the US, with Waymo remaining the only major operator after GM’s “Cruise” subsidiary exited the market due to safety concerns.
At the same time China is ramping up its robotaxi efforts, with Yole citing Baidu’s Apollo Go as a market leader. It now operates fully driverless fleets across more than ten cities and is aiming for profitability this year as 1000 new sixth-generation robotaxis come online in Wuhan. According to recent industry rumors Baidu is now preparing to launch its robotaxi services in Europe and Turkey.
In passenger vehicles there is also strong momentum in China, thanks to BYD’s recent “God’s Eye” technology announcement and Li Auto’s decision to offer lidar across all of its new cars.
“These moves are expected to influence other local automakers and accelerate demand through 2025 and beyond,” said Yole, contrasting that effort with a more cautious outlook in the US, Japan, and Europe where many auto firms are facing financial challenges.
“There, lidar is still largely reserved for premium and luxury vehicles from brands like Audi, BMW, Volvo, and Mercedes-Benz,” points out the analyst company. “Adoption is slow, with global OEMs focusing on “Highway Pilot” features - true autonomous modes where the driver is not responsible.”
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