Corning chief sees 2002 turnaround

17 Jun 2002

John Loose, Corning's chief executive, believes that demand for optical fiber will return in six-to-nine months' time.

Demand for optical fiber will return in the second half of next year, Corning chief executive and president John Loose has told delegates at this week's UBS Warburg Global Telecom Conference in New York, US.

According to a Reuters report, Loose said that regional telephone carriers will start facing problems with their existing capacity in six-to-nine months' time. He believes that they will then need to build new optical networks to cope with the increased demand.

Corning has recently mothballed much of its fibre-producing activity in the wake of carrier demand for fiber grinding to a halt.

Analysts attending the conference were reportedly skeptical of Loose's optimism, however. They said that his theory hinges on the assumption that carriers will reach 75% of their maximum network capacity in mid-2002, and need to buy more fiber to cope with extra demand.

With one attendee reportedly calling Loose's comments "wishful thinking", analysts were divided over their reasons for skepticism. Some believe that network providers simply aren't reaching maximum usage capacity, while others say that dense-wavelength division multiplexing advances will reduce the need to lay more fiber-optic cable.

In his presentation, Loose added that there was still demand for fiber in China, European regional networks and North American metropolitan networks. He said that it would take 12 to 18 months to completely work through the current overcapacity.