Don't ignore China, economist says

17 Jun 2002

(Deseret News Service) "No company can form a sound strategy for exporting their products to Asia unless they factor The People's Republic of China into their equation."

So said Robert Broadfoot, an economist and managing director of the Hong Kong-based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy Ltd., a network of 40 economists, political scientists and business researchers in 10 Asian countries. When China takes over Hong Kong in 1997 there are a variety of scenarios that could emerge so any company already exporting to Asia or contemplating that move should study the transition of Hong Kong from colonial rule by the British to China.

Speaking during a Tuesday meeting on exporting sponsored by U.S. Bancorp and its recently acquired subsidiary, West One Bank, Broadfoot suggested that anyone contemplating exporting to Asia do it under scenario planning, which is examining several alternatives. When Hong Kong becomes part of China it could emerge as a major international trading and financial center with heavy or minimal government intervention. Or it could be just another Chinese city with heavy or minimal government intervention.

Broadfoot said a company could make or lose money under each of the scenarios. There are more multinational business in Hong Kong today than ever before, but there also is more government control and he believes it will become a major international trading and financial center, but with more government control.