17 Jun 2002
A shortage of standards and low-cost interfaces is threatening to undermine the market for short-reach data-links made from plastic optical fibre, reports Lisa van Beurden.
From Opto & Laser Europe June 2002
For some time now, plastic optical fibre (POF) has been heralded as the most suitable transmission medium to fill the void between the low cost and low bandwidth of copper cables, and the high cost and high bandwidth of silica fibre.
Based on trends in four major market sectors - automotive, consumer electronics, industrial controls and interconnection - the IGI Group, a US industry analyst, expects the POF market to grow from $502 m (EURO 532 m) in 2002 to more than $2 bn in 2006.
That said, the potential explosion in the POF market may be in danger of fizzling out before it has had a chance to take hold, according to IGI's latest report.
IGI says that a host of low-speed applications are
missing out on the benefits of POF, including medical and consumer electronics, home wiring,
security systems and industrial controls. What's more, IGI places the blame at the door of POF
suppliers, suggesting they are being seduced by the more glamorous high-speed applications such as
local-area networks and fibre-to-the-home. He
explains that wire harnesses are used in cars to manage the otherwise complex tangle of cables. The
result is that a multitude of individual cables can end up packed in with other high-speed cables in the
same harness. This, coupled with voltage variations, can cause EMI problems in the car if copper
wires are used. "We use POF instead of glass fibres because it is much cheaper to realize POF
connectors than silica connectors. You can fabricate POF fibres with large-diameter cores," Zeeb said,
adding that the 1 mm core diameter of POF fibres also allows large adjustment tolerances at the
connectors. At present, just two companies - Daimler Chrysler and BMW - provide the bulk of
the European automobile market for POF. But many other European car manufacturers are planning
to introduce POF in 2003, with firms in the US following suit in 2004. The key to POF's
successful penetration of the automotive industry seems to have been the development of a standard
for POF data-buses in vehicles - the media-oriented systems transport (MOST) standard. Without it,
there's every chance that POF would still be languishing backstage. Several European vehicle
manufacturers are now using the MOST data-bus system in their cars, according to Zeeb. "This
makes it easier for us to use [POF] because we have more suppliers for the data-bus system. The
components are also cheaper because we have a higher volume." This year Daimler Chrysler, for
example, has introduced a MOST-based data bus that enables the transmission of compressed media
data to its Mercedes E-class cars. Suppliers are under tremendous pressure to cut costs,
according to Paul Polishuk, president of the IGI Group. "Right now, for example, transceivers cost
around $6 and the automobile manufacturers want to get that down to $3." The effects of this will
impact on the connector and cable manufacturers first, and will then trickle down to benefit all parts of
the plastic fibre business. "Rather than a technology push, this is a market pull," explained
Polishuk. "If you look at things like Gigabit
transmission, for example, they formed an alliance led by the suppliers to develop the market,"
Polishuk commented. "And they put a great deal of money behind it." "There is a lot of truth in
that," agreed James Walker, vice-president of R&D at Nanoptics, a US firm that manufactures
custom-made POF. "In fact, the POFTO [POF trade organization, US] group has recently been
created to address this." Japan already has a POF consortium in which more than 60
companies, universities and research institutes are working together. "What we need is at least one
more corresponding consortium in Europe or, if we could join all of these efforts together, a
worldwide consortium," said Hans Poisel, director of Germany-based POF application centre
POFAC. Coupled
with the connector hurdle, POF's future in the home market hangs on a unique interface solution,
according to Olaf Ziemann, scientific director of POFAC. "At this time we do not have such a
solution for digital networks. We have Easynet for computers, special company interfaces for audio
equipment and so on," he said. "We see the future in the IEEE 1394 interface." The IEEE 1394
promises to be the first interface that can be used for all home applications - computer, audio, video,
and data communications such as telephone and the Internet. If all digital end-customer devices use
the same interface, the potential growth of the home-network market is enormous. "I see a big portion
for POF in this market," predicted Ziemann. Nanoptics also thinks there is potential in the
home market. Communications media such as wireless and copper are suitable for up to 10 Mbit/s,
and wire might stretch up to 100 Mbit/s. Above this, however, competing transmission media will be
unable to compete with POF in terms of speed or cost, says Walker. "In fact, the standards have
already been written for 100, 200, 400, 800 and 1600 Mbit/s," he pointed out. So what about
other markets? "There is only a good business opportunity for POF in the low-speed
communications market in situations where there is very high electromagnetic noise," Walker
asserted. "POF is already in the industrial and automobile markets, which are both noisy
environments. It's an ideal communications medium under these circumstances." Industrial
control is a good niche for POF, and is being addressed successfully, says Walker. The electrical
interference caused by motors on production lines creates havoc for wireless and wire
communications. The advantage of POF is that the data isn't contaminated by electrical pick
up. "There will definitely be a worldwide market for low-cost POF in the industrial sector for
100 Mbit/s Ethernet," said Walker. "It's a new phenomenon and people in Europe and the US are
eyeing that market and trying to see how best to exploit it." Medical electronics, on the other
hand, isn't a particularly fruitful sector. Medical equipment, such as hand-held and portable
instruments, is largely being serviced by wireless using Bluetooth standards. "The reason is that you
need to have mobility for the point-of-care," explained Walker. "So I don't think it's a good POF
application." A key ingredient still missing from the mix, according to Poisel, is POF
fabrication and development in Europe. Indeed, Japan holds a 90% share in the market. "We still have
to rely on the optical fibres that are produced in Japan and we depend on the progress they are
making," he said.
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